A new report has warned that international travel for Australians is probably going to stay restrictive until 2024.Deloitte Access Economics’ quarterly business outlook - printed before the Morrison government’s vaccination program being thrown into disarray late last week - expects international borders will re-open only gradually.For Australia, Deloitte economist Chris Richardson anticipates there'll be some kind of quarantine remaining for incoming travellers for a few time.
“That keeps international travel - both inbound and outbound - pretty weak in 2022, and it's going to not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024,” he said.Late last week health authorities recommended the AstraZeneca vaccine should only tend to people above 50 thanks to the danger of blood coagulation - throwing plane companies’ plans for a world relaunch into disarray.
The government has since secured a further 20 million Pfizer vaccine doses which will be shipped from abroad later within the year.Otherwise, Richardson says globally vaccines are mostly working, governments are still mostly spending and central banks are mostly “pedal to the metal” in term of low interest rates.“Fundamentals are moving pretty fast off the rear of that,” he said.He said Australia’s economy appears to be “roaring back”, although just like the Federal Reserve Bank , he expects a lift within the interest rates is a few years away.
Shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers said the expected economic rebound is welcome.“But Australians’ jobs and livelihoods are being threatened by Scott Morrison’s bungled vaccine rollout, premature cuts to JobKeeper, and attacks on wages and incomes,” he told AAP.Richardson doesn't expect a sustained inflation rise back to the RBA’s two to 3 per cent target band to commence until 2023/24.
“A sustained lift in inflation requires a line of things to happen,” Richardson told AAP.It will take time for the roles market to tighten and therefore the unemployment to fall enough to lift wage pressures.“This goes to be a slow moving train not a quick one,” he said.One immediate hurdle for the labour market are going to be last month’s demise of JobKeeper.
Richardson anticipates there'll be many stories of individual business closures and job losses as a results of the wage subsidy ending.He doubts the jobless rate will return to above six per cent as a results of the top of JobKeeper.“But if it does, it'll only be temporary,” he said.The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release labour force figures for advance Thursday, which can capture the ultimate days of the JobKeeper program.
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